Validation of Fistula Risk Score calculator in diverse North American HPB practices.
Publication Title
HPB (Oxford)
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
6-1-2017
Keywords
Canada; Chi-Square Distribution; Clinical Decision-Making; Databases, Factual; Decision Support Techniques; Gastroenterology; Humans; Logistic Models; Multivariate Analysis; Pancreatic Fistula; Pancreaticoduodenectomy; Predictive Value of Tests; Reproducibility of Results; Retrospective Studies; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; United States
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Fistula Risk Score (FRS) is a previously developed tool to assess the risk of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD).
METHODS: Prospectively collected databases from 4 university affiliated and non-affiliated HPB centers in United States and Canada were used. The influence of individual baseline characteristics, FRS and FRS group on CR-POPF was assessed in univariate and multivariate analyses. FRS calculator performance was assessed using a C-statistic.
RESULTS: 444 patients were identified. Pathology, soft pancreas texture and pancreatic duct size were associated with CR-POPF rates (p < 0.001 for each); EBL was not (p = 0.067). The negligible risk group consisted of 50 (11.3%) patients, low risk of 118 (26.6%), moderate 234 (52.7%) and high risk group of 42 (9.5%) patients. The overall rate of CR-POPF was 20%. Of the patients in the negligible risk group, 2% developed CR-POPF, 13.6% of the low risk, 23.1% moderate and 42.9% in the high risk group (p < 0.001). Overall C-statistic was 0.719.
CONCLUSION: FRS is robust and able to stratify the risk of developing CR-POPF following PD in diverse North American academic and non-academic institutions. The FRS should be used in research and to guide clinical management of patients post PD in these institutions.
Area of Special Interest
Digestive Health
Specialty/Research Institute
Gastroenterology
