Number needed to treat with ursodeoxycholic acid therapy to prevent liver transplantation or death in primary biliary cholangitis.
Publication Title
Gut
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
8-1-2020
Keywords
washington; seattle; swedish; Adult; Aged; Alkaline Phosphatase; Cholagogues and Choleretics; Chronic Disease; Databases, Factual; Female; Humans; Liver Cirrhosis; Liver Cirrhosis, Biliary; Liver Transplantation; Male; Middle Aged; Numbers Needed To Treat; Proportional Hazards Models; Survival Rate; Treatment Outcome; Ursodeoxycholic Acid
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The clinical benefit of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has never been reported in absolute measures. The aim of this study was to assess the number needed to treat (NNT) with UDCA to prevent liver transplantation (LT) or death among patients with PBC.
METHODS: The NNT was calculated based on the untreated LT-free survival and HR of UDCA with respect to LT or death as derived from inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox proportional hazard analyses within the Global PBC Study Group database.
RESULTS: We included 3902 patients with a median follow-up of 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. The overall HR of UDCA was 0.46 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.52) and the 5-year LT-free survival without UDCA was 81% (95% CI 79 to 82). The NNT to prevent one LT or death within 5 years (NNT
CONCLUSION: The absolute clinical efficacy of UDCA with respect to LT or death varied with baseline prognostic characteristics, but was high throughout. These findings strongly emphasise the incentive to promptly initiate UDCA treatment in all patients with PBC and may improve patient compliance.
Area of Special Interest
Digestive Health
Specialty/Research Institute
Gastroenterology
Specialty/Research Institute
Hepatology
